人民币兑美元“破7”引发三问

根据中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心10日公布的最新数据，银行间外汇市场人民币对美元汇率中间价首度“破7”，为6.9920元人民币兑1美元。人民币对美元汇率中间价创出新高。　　以2005年汇改前的人民币对美元比价8.2765：1计算，目前人民币对美元累计升值超过15.5%。也就是说，同样兑换1美元，如今可以少花1.2845元人民币。
　　中国2005年7月21日启动的人民币汇率形成机制改革，给经济发展带来深远的影响。人民币汇率改革后，中国不断完善汇率形成机制，出台了一系列配套措施，并逐步增强汇率弹性。
　　总体上看，人民币对美元汇率近年来持续呈现小幅上扬态势。2006年5月15日，人民币对美元汇率中间价首度“破8”。今年以来，人民币对美元升值步伐进一步加快，已经累计升值4.27%。
　　 这是外汇市场高度关注的一刻：10日9点15分，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布信息，银行间外汇市场人民币对美元汇率中间价首度升值“破7”，比价为6.992：1。
　　就人民币汇率形成机制改革而言，人民币对美元汇率中间价“破7”具有标志性的意义。“破7”引发的三个问题，分外值得关注。
　　问号之一：人民币对美元升值步伐缘何加快？ 　　“今年以来，人民币对美元升值呈现加快态势。”中国人民银行济南分行行长杨子强说，“人民币汇率变动受到多种因素影响。去年以来，美元大幅贬值，我国国际收支顺差高居不下等，均对人民币汇率波动产生了影响。”
　　2005年7月21日我国启动人民币汇率形成机制改革后，人民币对美元汇率总体呈现小幅持续上扬态势。不过，随着时间推移，人民币对美元汇率升值步伐近期明显加快。
　　在今年3月13日人民币对美元汇率中间价突破7.1：1关口后，“破7”早已在市场预料之中。数据显示，今年以来人民币对美元汇率屡创新高，累计升值4.47%。而2007年全年，人民币对美元升值幅度为6.5%。
　　虽然影响汇率变动因素较多，但市场人士公认“美元持续贬值”是导致人民币对美元升值步伐加快的主要因素。
　　在人民币汇率参照的一篮子货币中，美元是最重要的组成部分。2007年9月美国次贷危机爆发以来，美元持续走软。包括人民币在内，欧元、日元等货币均面临升值压力。
　　“而美联储近期的连续降息也使中美利差进一步‘倒挂’，加大了人民币对美元的上行压力。”对外经贸大学金融学院副院长丁志杰说。
　　汇改两年多来，人民币汇率弹性不断增强，事实上也促进了汇率水平的加速调整。自2007年5月21日起，央行决定银行间即期外汇市场人民币对美元交易价浮动幅度由千分之三扩大至千分之五，这是增强人民币汇率弹性的一个重要举措，也被视为我国完善人民币汇率形成机制改革所取得的显著效果。
　　今年政府工作报告指出，2008年将“完善人民币汇率形成机制，增强汇率弹性”。这意味着，人民币汇率波幅今后将进一步加大。
　　问号之二：持续升值给出口企业带来多大影响？ 　　人民币对美元升值，会压制出口企业的利润。在人民币对美元汇率走高之际，人们越发关注由此给国内出口企业带来的压力。
　　“人民币升值确实给部分企业的利润造成了影响，尤其是从事农产品、低端纺织业等一些劳动密集型行业产品基本没有定价权的企业，受到的影响比较明显。”杨子强举例说，“山东省部分沿海地区出现了一些外资企业‘蒸发’逃逸的情况，人民币升值是影响因素之一。”
　　据2007年底中国企业家调查系统对数千家企业的问卷调查显示，若今后一年内人民币升值相比过去速度不减，有36.8%的企业经营者认为对产品出口“影响较大”，这要比上年的调查数据增长了6.8个百分点。
　　不同行业所受到的影响程度也差异明显。上述调查显示，纺织、服装等制造业企业超过六成的经营者认为“影响较大”或“影响很大”，而造纸、化工、医药、橡胶、冶金、通用设备、专用设备等行业受到的影响相对较小。
　　人民币升值给某些出口企业带来压力固然是客观事实，但从整体来看，人民币升值对促进外贸企业加快转变贸易增长方式、着力调整产品结构，也有着显而易见的好处。
　　央行今年2月底发布的货币政策执行报告称，经过两年多的调整，企业通过提高生产效率、降低生产成本，积极促进产品升级换代，一定程度上消化了人民币升值压力，大部分外贸企业对人民币汇率变动的调整能力和承受能力明显高于预期。
　　前段时间，珠三角地区出现了大量企业开始转厂外迁甚至倒闭的趋势，这引起人们的广泛关注。虽然“人民币升值是影响因素之一”，但这轮“外迁、倒闭”风波的背后，本质原因也是地区产业梯度转移、产业升级的必然过程。
　　据央行调查，在面临众多压力的情况下，我国纺织行业目前加快产业结构调整，积极淘汰落后产能，进行产业区域转移，纺织业投资出现由沿海向内陆梯度转移的趋势。
　　但值得注意的是，由于次贷风波造成今年世界经济发展的不确定性进一步增强，从而弱化了相关国家对中国产品的需求。不少企业预期未来出口利润和出口订单将有所减少，今后面临的挑战依然严峻，转换贸易发展模式的任务更艰巨。
　　问号之三：升值对抑制物价上涨有多大效果？ 　　 控制物价过快上涨，抑制通货膨胀，是今年宏观调控的重要任务。近日在京召开的央行货币政策委员会第一季度例会也提出，防止价格总水平过快上涨是今年金融宏观调控的中心工作。
　　目前，国内价格上涨的一个原因是输入性通胀所导致。由于美元持续贬值，国际市场上价格与美元挂钩的大宗商品，包括石油、钢铁、铜、矿石、粮食等，价格持续大幅上涨或高位运行。这些价格上涨也传递到国内，增大了国内通货膨胀压力。
　　在这一背景下，有些业内人士建议通过人民币加速升值的方式，抵消部分上涨进口成本，抑制国际产品价格增长的传递效应。“加快升值以抑制通胀。当人民币升值，以人民币计价的进口货品价格则变得相对便宜。”中国国际金融公司首席经济学家哈继铭解释说。
　　对此，一些国内专家表示，虽然从长期看，人民币加速升值有利于国际收支平衡，有助于抑制输入性通胀，但由于美国次贷危机影响带来的不确定性，当前更应强调相对稳定的汇率政策。
　　央行行长周小川不久前在十一届全国人大一次会议记者招待会上说，人民币适当升值有助于抑制通货膨胀，但中国作为一个大国，抑制通货膨胀不会成为汇率机制改革或者市场汇率浮动变化的主要原因。控制通胀，更主要还是依靠国内综合措施。
　　央行货币政策委员会委员樊纲日前在中国发展高层论坛上也强调，在世界经济存在不确定的情况下，当前更需要一个比较相对稳定的汇率政策，以防范资金投机对经济造成破坏。
　　
　　“奔6时代”影响几何？ 　　今日扬州网消息:对老百姓而言，人民币升值带来的影响是显而易见的，一方面，美元、港元的持续贬值，使得老百姓手中的美元、港元等外汇资产大幅缩水。另一方面，人民币的升值也使得出境旅游和购物变得更划算。有关人士算了一笔账，如果有市民两年前将1000美元一直保存到现在换成人民币，只有7000元，而当时就换成人民币有8100元左右，也就是说一下子就缩水了1100元。
　　两年缩水1100元 　　市区的张先生刚去了趟美国，给家人带回来手表等价值一千美元的礼物，“因为人民币升值的关系，这些商品的价格要比去年便宜七百多元人民币。”张先生兴奋地说。每年都要去香港购物的胡小姐说:“我记得2006年时要用110多元人民币兑换100港元，现在只要90元人民币。而香港的物价基本没什么变化，同样多的钱我可以买更多的东西了。”
　　企业放弃美元结算 　　随着人民币兑美元的持续升值，扬州的许多进出口企业开始“未雨绸缪”，记者在采访中发现，不少企业用欧元、澳元等非美元货币进行结算。
　　市区一家外贸企业负责人告诉记者，由于没坚持按签订合同时的汇率结算，他去年底接到总价45万美元的订单，还没等到3个月后交货就已缩水近7万元人民币。据了解，目前我市的玩具、服装、鞋帽等出口企业一直与美元贬值在赛跑，而不少企业在连续不断的升值过程中利润遭到大幅压缩。
　　为了应对人民币升值的影响，扬州不少进出口企业不再用美元议价和结算，更多的企业用欧元、澳元、加元来结算。
　　“破7”对股市是利是弊？ 　　“从目前低迷的股市来看，人民币升值短期内对A股市场没有影响，但从长期看是利好。”新时代证券总经理夏亚平认为，人民币升值将使钢铁、石化、投资品等行业受惠，而这些行业是大盘股聚集之地。人民币升值对于资源进口型企业是重大利好，成本降低将有利于这部分上市公司业绩的大幅增长，其中受益的板块集中在航空、汽车、石油加工、高档的造纸板块、技术引进型高科技板块、资源引进型的金属加工行业。
　　此前，人民币升值曾被业内人士视为支撑去年牛市的重要因素之一。不过，进入2008年，特别是经历近期股市深幅调整之后，业界却出现了一些不同的声音。
　　“人民币升值对宏观经济弊大于利，而股市是国民经济的晴雨表，所以对于股市来说，是利空而不是利好。”工行副行长陶诚认为，人民币升值对中国的出口型企业特别是劳动密集型企业、产品附加值较低的上市公司则有较大的负面影响，从而在中长线影响其股价的表现。
　　昨日，人民币兑美元汇率中间价报首次突破7元大关，首度探高到6.9995元兑1美元，与此同时，人民币兑港元也升破0.9，昨日中间价0.89888。至此，今年以来，在短短4个多月的时间里，人民币兑美元已升值4.26%，兑港元也已升值4.06%；而自2005年7月21日汇率制度改革以来，人民币兑美元累计已升值18.2%，兑港元也已升值18.34%。

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