亚行报告：中国经济增速减缓，通货膨胀加剧

中国香港（2008年4月2日）- 亚洲开发银行（亚行）的一份重要报告指出，由于国内预计采取更加严格的货币政策、外部需求的减少和人民币升值步伐的加快，2008年和2009年中国的经济增长率将下降到10%左右。
亚行的旗舰年度经济出版物《2008年亚洲发展展望》于今天发行，该出版物预测，中国的经济增长率将从13年来的最高点2007年的11.4%降至2008年的10%和2009年的9.8%。
消费对国内生产总值的拉动力将在2008年继续增加，同时投资将继续成为经济增长的一个动力。
《2008年亚洲发展展望》警告称，食品价格上涨将使经济的通货膨胀压力火上烧油。消费价格通胀在2008年将平均达到5.5%，2009年也将保持在5%左右。
总部设在马尼拉的该区域开发银行的首席经济学家艾弗兹?阿里(Ifzal Ali)称，“积极的货币紧缩措施、全球经济前景黯淡以及更加严格的贷款政策将使经济增长率降至其潜在水平。”
由于贸易顺差继续加大，资本流入没有减退迹象， 中国政府可能会允许人民币与美元的汇率以更快速度升值。
由于全球需求的缩减和出口退税的削减，中国的出口增长有望从2007年的26%降至2008年的19%，并在2009年继续滑落至18%。而另一方面，由于人民币升值、进口关税减让和其他刺激进口的政策出台，中国的进口有望在2008年和2009年升至20%。
在贸易顺差增长有望在2008年至2009年缩减的同时，奥运会收益将填补2008年的服务账户赤字。中国日益增加的外汇储备和海外投资将进一步充实收益账户。而经常账户盈余在国内生产总值中所占比例将在2008年和2009年从2007年的11%左右分别降至9.9%和8.6%。
展望未来，该报告指出，要使经济保持高增长速度，减轻发展对于投资和出口的过度依赖，中国政府就必须解决中国经济中存在的三大失衡现象。
“中国必须促进国内消费、解决能源和环保问题，以及缩减城乡收入差距。”阿里先生称。
这份报告指出，中国政府已经推出了大量新举措以促进建设“和谐社会”。然而，重新实现平衡面临一些限制。这些限制包括储蓄率偏高，尤其是企业；地方政府官员强调经济增长，能源价格过低和环境污染治理政策执行不力，以及诸如户籍登记系统的管理条例等等。
亚行总部位于菲律宾首都马尼拉。亚行致力于通过促进益贫式经济增长、社会发展和良好的治理机制来促进亚太地区的减贫事业。亚行成立于1966年，由67个成员体共同拥有，其中48个成员体为本地区成员。2007年，亚行批准了101亿美元贷款项目，6.73亿美元赠款和2.43亿美元的技术援助项目。

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